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Forward-rate target zones and exchange rate dynamics

  • Lin, Hwan C.

A target zone for the forward exchange rate is developed using a log-linear monetary model. Exchange rates are driven by a Wiener process. A central bank purchases or sells foreign exchange forward to keep the target forward rate in a specified band. Defending such a target zone does not require regulated Wiener process, for the central bank's forward exchange intervention can avoid disturbing the money supply. A forward-rate target zone can stabilize the spot rate against a free float and its stabilizing effects become more significant if the delivery term applying to the target forward rate is shorter.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 831-846

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:831-846
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  1. Dumas, B. & Svensson, E.O., 1991. "How Long Do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," Papers 509, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1989. "Target Zones And Interest Rate Variability," Papers 457, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Broome, Simon, 2001. "The lifetime of a unilateral target zone: some extended results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, June.
  5. Hui-Kuan Tseng, 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability and Exchange Market Intervention: Spot vs. Forward," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16.
  6. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Monetary and real shocks and the optimal target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 161-172, January.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
  8. Grinols, Earl L. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1993. "Risk, the financial market, and macroeconomic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-36.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  11. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," CEPR Discussion Papers 421, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. S. C. Tsiang, 1959. "The Theory of Forward Exchange and Effects of Government Intervention on the Forward Exchange Market," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 75-106, April.
  13. Jonathan Eaton & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 1138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Avinash Dixit, 1991. "Analytical Approximations in Models of Hysteresis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 141-151.
  15. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  16. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1994. "Optimal Target Zones: How an Exchange Rate Mechanism Can Improve Upon Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 1031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Dumas, Bernard, 1991. "Super contact and related optimality conditions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 675-685, October.
  18. Kawai, Masahiro, 1984. "The effect of forward exchange on spot-rate volatility under risk and rational expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 155-172, February.
  19. Grinols, Earl L. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1994. "Exchange rate determination and asset prices in a stochastic small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 75-97, February.
  20. Angel Serrat, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211.
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