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The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention

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  • Jonathan Eaton
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper examines two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Increased speculation (i) stabilizes domestic income against disturbances in the domestic bond market and forward exchange market; (ii) exacerbates the effect of foreign disturbances; and (iii) may dampen or augment the effect of money market and output supply disturbances. The second issue is the role of the forward market in stabilization policy. Forward market intervention does not provide monetary authorities additional leverage in stabilizing income beyond unsterilized spot market intervention. Intervention rules based on reactions to both the forward and the spot exchange rates, however, can outperform intervention policies responding to the spot rate alone, regardless of the market in which intervention occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Eaton & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1984. "The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(1), pages 45-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:99:y:1984:i:1:p:45-69.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-1055, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
    2. Zapatero, Fernando & Reverter, Luis F., 2003. "Exchange rate intervention with options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 289-306, April.
    3. Patricio Mujica, 1988. "Políticas de Tipo de Cambio: Un Modelo de Tres Países," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 25(75), pages 197-214.
    4. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    5. Hui-Kuan Tseng, 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability and Exchange Market Intervention: Spot vs. Forward," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16.
    6. Eaton, Jonathan, 1985. "Optimal and time consistent exchange-rate management in an overlapping-generations economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 83-100, March.
    7. Lin, Hwan C., 2008. "Forward-rate target zones and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 831-846, September.
    8. Suh, Sangwon & Zapatero, Fernando, 2008. "A class of quadratic options for exchange rate stabilization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3478-3501, November.

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