Bayesian Target Zones
Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An empirical model for exchange rates in a soft target zone where there is a controlled probability of the observed rates exceeding the stated limits is developed in this paper. A Bayesian approach is used to analyse the model, which is then demonstrated on Deutschemark-French franc and ECU-French franc exchange rate data.
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- Mizrach, Bruce, 1995.
"Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
- Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Honohan, Patrick, 1998. "A pitfall in computing exchange rate density in the EMS band," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 839-853, October.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Marcus Miller & Paul Weller, 1991. "Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 184-215, March.
- Kofman, Paul & de Vaal, Albert & de Vries, Casper G., 1993. "Fixing soft margins," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 359-374, May.
- Alejandro M. Werner, 1996. "Target Zones and Realignment Expectations: The Israeli and Mexican Experiences," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 571-586, September.
- Kees G. Koedijk & Philip A. Stork & Casper G. De Vries, 1998. "An EMS target zone model in discrete time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 31-48.
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