Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes
Central banks adopt an inflation targeting policy with a goal to anchor inflation expectations. We argue that the expectations anchoring test developed in the context of the Krugman (1991) exchange rate targeting model is well-suited for inflation targeting applications. The test quantifies nonlinearity between realized and expected inflation for very high and very low inflation levels. It does not require comparison with the control group of non-targeting countries, avoiding critique of the benchmark approach. We test inflation targeting in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom and find weak support for expectations anchoring.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Box 844000, Richmond, VA 23284-4000|
Web page: http://www.business.vcu.edu/economics
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995.
"The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target,"
NBER Working Papers
4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 1103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
- Forbes, C.S. & Kofman, P., 2000. "Bayesian Soft Target Zones," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2003. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 533, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society.
- Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2001. "Central bank interventions and exchange rate band regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 677-700, October.
- Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Li, Kai, 1999. "Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 461-490, Sept.-Oct.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000. "Bayesian Target Zones," Research Paper Series 32, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Catherine S. Forbes & Paul Kofman, 2000. "Bayesian Target Zones," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0575, Econometric Society.
- Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada.
- Robert J. Tetlow, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Traget Instability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 151-192, December.
- Robert J. Tetlow, 2000. "Inflation targeting and target instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1999. "Analysis of Exchange-Rate Target Zones Using a Limited-Dependent Rational-Expectations Model with Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 50-66, January.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1998. "Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche 9803, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1998. "Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche 9803, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16.
- Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
- Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oleg Korenok)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.