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Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation

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  • Li, Kai

Abstract

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to estimating exchange rate target zone models and rational expectations models in general. It also introduces a simultaneous-equation target zone model that incorporates stochastic realignment risk. Using FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rate data, we find that the signing of the 1987 Basle-Nyborg Agreement reduces both the magnitude and the likelihood of a central parity realignment, while the lagged exchange rate deviation from its central parity increases them. Furthermore, the interest rate policies and the monetary conditions of the participating countries signal a forthcoming realignment. In general, we are unable to improve upon a simple random walk model in out-of-sample exchange rate prediction by introducing target zone models.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Kai, 1999. "Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 461-490, Sept.-Oct.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:5:p:461-90
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1999-v14.5/
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The smooth transition autoregressive target zone model with the Gaussian stochastic volatility and TGARCH error terms with applications," Econometrics 0508015, EconWPA.
    2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    3. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    4. Chakravarty, Sugato & Li, Kai, 2003. "A Bayesian analysis of dual trader informativeness in futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-371, May.

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