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Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation

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  • Li, Kai

Abstract

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to estimating exchange rate target zone models and rational expectations models in general. It also introduces a simultaneous-equation target zone model that incorporates stochastic realignment risk. Using FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rate data, we find that the signing of the 1987 Basle-Nyborg Agreement reduces both the magnitude and the likelihood of a central parity realignment, while the lagged exchange rate deviation from its central parity increases them. Furthermore, the interest rate policies and the monetary conditions of the participating countries signal a forthcoming realignment. In general, we are unable to improve upon a simple random walk model in out-of-sample exchange rate prediction by introducing target zone models.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Kai, 1999. "Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 461-490, Sept.-Oct.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:5:p:461-90
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1999-v14.5/
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The smooth transition autoregressive target zone model with the Gaussian stochastic volatility and TGARCH error terms with applications," Econometrics 0508015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    3. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    4. Chakravarty, Sugato & Li, Kai, 2003. "A Bayesian analysis of dual trader informativeness in futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-371, May.

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