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Does Inflation Targeting Matter?

In: The Inflation-Targeting Debate

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  • Laurence M. Ball
  • Niamh Sheridan

Abstract

This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare seven OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to thirteen that did not. After the early 90s, performance improved along many dimensions for both the targeting countries and the non-targeters. In some cases the targeters improved by more; for example, average inflation fell by a larger amount. However, these differences are explained by the facts that targeters performed worse than non-targeters before the early 90s, and there is regression to the mean. Once one controls for regression to the mean, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.
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Suggested Citation

  • Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9561
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    5. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    6. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Working Paper Series WP99-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    10. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274 Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter? - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 149-154.
    14. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148.
    15. Chorng-Huey Wong & Eric V. Clifton & Gene L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 01/166, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mark Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting; Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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