Descriptive econometrics for non-stationary time series with empirical illustrations
Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed. The methods are extended to include processes with deterministic trends, formulae for the mean spatial density are given, and the limits of sample moments of non-stationary data are shown to take the form of moments with respect to the underlying spatial density, analogous to population moments of a stationary process. The methods are illustrated in some empirical applications and simulations. The empirical applications include macroeconomic data on inflation, financial data on exchange rates and political opinion poll data. It is shown how the methods can be used to measure empirical hazard rates for inflation and deflation. Empirical estimates based on historical US data over the last 60 years indicate that the predominant inflation risks are at low levels (2-6%) and low two-digit levels (10-12%), and that there is also a significant risk of deflation around the −1% level. Copyright Â© 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992.
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Härdle, W.K., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Espasa, Antoni & Sargan, J Denis, 1977. "The Spectral Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Systems with Lagged Endogenous Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 583-605, October.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Oliver LINTON, .
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1181, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:3:p:389-413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.