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Laws and Limits of Econometrics

  • Peter C. B. Phillips

    (Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University)

We discuss general weaknesses and limitations of the econometric approach. A template from sociology is used to formulate six laws that characterise mainstream activities of econometrics and their scientific limits. We discuss proximity theorems that quantify by explicit bounds how close we can get to the generating mechanism of the data and the optimal forecasts of next period observations using a finite number of observations. The magnitude of the bound depends on the characteristics of the model and trajectory of the data. We look at one possible future of econometrics using advanced econometric methods interactively with a web browser. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 113 (2003)
Issue (Month): 486 (March)
Pages: C26-C52

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:486:p:c26-c52
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  1. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 181-240, August.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1999. "Empirical Limits for Time Series Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1220, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
  6. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "How to Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt87p2z8zx, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  7. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1990. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," NBER Working Papers 3572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1367, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2004.
  11. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2002. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1067-1109, May.
  12. Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1190, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  15. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2000. "Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models," Economics Series Working Papers 5, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Jeganathan, P., 1999. "On Asymptotic Inference In Cointegrated Time Series With Fractionally Integrated Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 583-621, August.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  18. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  19. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Higher-order approximations for frequency domain time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 297-336, June.
  20. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  22. repec:dgr:uvatin:20000055 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  24. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:764-73 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "Higher order approximations for Wald statistics in time series regressions with integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 157-198, May.
  26. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
  27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  30. Forchini, Giovanni & Hillier, Grant, 2003. "Conditional Inference For Possibly Unidentified Structural Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(05), pages 707-743, October.
  31. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1987.
  32. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayesian Model Selection and Prediction with Empirical Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1023, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  33. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  34. Kim, Jae-Young, 1994. "Bayesian Asymptotic Theory in a Time Series Model with a Possible Nonstationary Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 764-773, August.
  35. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 819R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1987.
  36. Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1362, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  37. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  38. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "New Unit Root Asymptotics in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1196, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  39. Dufour, J.M., 1995. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Instrumental Variables, Dynamic Models and Cointegration," Cahiers de recherche 9539, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  40. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
  41. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  42. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
  43. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-54, November.
  44. Sargan, J D, 1983. "Identification and Lack of Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1605-33, November.
  45. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  46. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  47. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521802727 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Lahiri, Kajal, 1999. "Et Interview: Professor G.S. Maddala," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 753-776, October.
  49. P. Dorian Owen, 2003. "General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 609-628, 09.
  50. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  51. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  52. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
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