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Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity

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Abstract

This paper reports quarterly ex ante forecasts of macroeconomic activity for the U.S.A., Japan and Australia for the period 1995-1997. The forecasts are based on automated time series models of vector autoregressions (VAR's), reduced rank regressions (RRR's), error correction models (ECM's) and Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVAR's). The models are automated by using an asymptotic predictive form of the model selection criterion PIC to determine autoregressive lag order, cointegrating rank and trend degree in the VAR's, RRR's, and ECM's. The same criterion is used to find optimal values of the hyperparameters in the BVAR's. The forecasts are graphed and tabulated. In the case of the U.S.A., the results are compared with forecasts from the Fair model, a structural econometric model of the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Models and Forecasts of Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1024, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. McNees, Stephen K., 1986. "Forecasting accuracy of alternative techniques: A comparison of US macroeconomic forecasts, with comment : Stephen K. McNees, with comment, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 5-23," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    4. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, January.
    5. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
    6. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    8. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
    9. Trevor, R G & Thorp, S J, 1988. "VAR Forecasting Models of the Australian Economy: A Preliminary Analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 108-120, Supplemen.
    10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994. "Model Determination and Macroeconomic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1083, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September.
    13. Nicholas G. Polson & George C. Tiao (ed.), 1995. "Bayesian Inference," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 602.
    14. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
    2. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 3-20, February.
    3. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
    6. Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 212-231, February.
    7. Aaron Schiff & Peter Phillips, 2000. "Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 159-181.
    8. David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    9. Jennifer L. Castle & Xiaochuan Qin & W. Robert Reed, 2013. "Using Model Selection Algorithms To Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 269-296, April.
    10. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
    11. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2003. "Vision And Influence In Econometrics: John Denis Sargan," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 495-511, June.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 26-52, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automated time series model; cointegration; model selection; nonstationarity; posterior information criterion (PIC); PIC'ed model; stochastic trend; unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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