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Real-Time Econometrics

  • Pesaran, Hashem
  • Timmermann, Allan

This Paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker’s actions to the data-generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 212-231

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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:01:p:212-231_05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK
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  1. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  3. Egginton, Don M. & Pick, Andreas & Vahey, Shaun P., 2002. "'Keep it real!': a real-time UK macro data set," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 15-20, September.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999.
  7. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  9. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hendry, David F., 2005. "A Dialogue Concerning A New Instrument For Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 278-297, February.
  10. Garratt, Anthony & Kevin Lee & M Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 82, Royal Economic Society.
  11. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Aaron Schiff & Peter Phillips, 2000. "Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 159-181.
  16. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A., 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
  22. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
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