Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models
The Bank of England has constructed a ‘suite of statistical forecasting models’ (the ‘Suite’) providing judgement-free statistical forecasts of inflation and output growth as one of many inputs into the forecasting process, and to offer measures of relevant news in the data. The Suite combines a small number of forecasts generated using different sources of information and methodologies. The main combination methods employ weights that are equal or based on the Akaike information criterion (using likelihoods built from estimation errors). This paper sets a general context for this exercise, and describes some features of the Suite as it stood in May 2005. The forecasts are evaluated over the period of Bank independence (1997 Q2 to 2005 Q1) by a mean square error criterion. The forecast combinations generally lead to a reduction in forecast error, although over this period some of the benchmark models are hard to beat.
|Date of creation:||May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH|
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005.
"Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts,"
NBER Working Papers
11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999.
"A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp322, Financial Markets Group.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003.
"Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
04/16, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Staff Reports 163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2009.
"Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- George Kapetanios, 2005. "Variable Selection using Non-Standard Optimisation of Information Criteria," Working Papers 533, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004.
"Pooling of forecasts,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, 06.
- David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Wright, Jonathan H., 2008.
"Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004.
"Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach,"
NBER Working Papers
10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kapetanios, G. & Labhard, V. & Price, S., 2007.
"Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation,"
07/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
- Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecasting Using Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to U.K. Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 33-41, January.
- George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting using Bayesian and Information Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to UK Inflation," Working Papers 566, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2005. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003.
"The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Media Team)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.