Finding Good Predictors for Inflation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
We consider a Bayesian Model Averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation using a large set of potential indicators, comprising some 80 quarterly time series covering a wide spectrum of Swedish economic activity. The paper demonstrates how to efficiently and systematically evaluate (almost) all possible models that these indicators in combination can give rise to. The results, in terms of out-of-sample-performance, suggest that Bayesian Model Averaging is a useful alternative to other forecasting procedures, in particular recognizing the flexibility by which new information can be incorporated.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Forecasting, 2004, pages 479-496.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998.
"Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"
646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 2000.
"Nonparametric seemingly unrelated regression,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 257-281, October.
- Smith, M. & Kohn, R., 1998. "Nonparametric Seemingly Unrelated Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, .
"Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging,"
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 26, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- PALM, Franz C. & ZELLNER, Arnold, .
"To Combine or not to Combine? Issues of Combining Forecasts,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
1027, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Palm, F. & Zellner, A., 1991. "To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers 1991022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993.
"Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
- Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.