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Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Paolo Zaffaroni

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. In particular, it is shown that under certain conditions portfolio returns based on an average model will be more fat-tailed than if based on an individual underlying model with the same average volatility. Evaluation of volatility models is also considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as ‘average’ models and its exact and asymptotic properties are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns based on twenty two of Standard & Poor’s 500 industry group indices over the period January 2, 1995 to October 13, 2003, inclusive.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1358
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    Cited by:

    1. James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR ‘Fan’ Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
    2. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    5. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    6. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2011. "Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-007 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 513-544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 2906, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Imed Gammoudi & Lotfi BelKacem & Mohamed El Ghourabi, 2014. "Value at Risk Estimation for Heavy Tailed Distributions," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 109-125.
    12. Amendola, Alessandra & Storti, Giuseppe, 2009. "Combination of multivariate volatility forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Bahram Pesaran, 2007. "Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 2056, CESifo.
    14. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Forecasting realized volatility: a Bayesian model-averaging approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 709-733.
    15. Chua, Chew Lian & Suardi, Sandy & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2013. "Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-455.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model averaging; value-at-risk; decision based evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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