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Assessing the Impact of Private Sector Balance Sheets Effects on Financial Crises: a comparison of Bayesian and information-theoretic measures of model uncertainty


  • M. Weeks
  • S. Godsill
  • M. Stone


This paper examines the intensity of financial crises during the 1990s with a view to informing crisis prevention and mitigation policies. We compare the performance of a full Bayesian and an information-theoretic approach in addressing the econometric problems posed by the lack of a unifying theoretical model, a large number of crisis indicators, and a number of additional data shortfalls. The results indicate that the probability and intensity of financial crises are heightened by corporate illiquidity and leverage, a lack of nonbank sources of financing, excessive domestic relative to foreign currency liquidity and a cutoff of capital inflows. The implications are that policy measures aimed at improving the operation and monitoring of the corporate and nonbank financial sectors could reduce crisis vulnerability

Suggested Citation

  • M. Weeks & S. Godsill & M. Stone, 2004. "Assessing the Impact of Private Sector Balance Sheets Effects on Financial Crises: a comparison of Bayesian and information-theoretic measures of model uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 162, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:162

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aloisio Araújo & Jaime Orrillo & Mario R. Páscoa, 2000. "Equilibrium with Default and Endogenous Collateral," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Aloisio Araujo & Mário Rui Páscoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Martínez, 2002. "Collateral Avoids Ponzi Schemes in Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1613-1638, July.
    3. Araujo, Aloisio & Fajardo, Jose & Pascoa, Mario R., 2005. "Endogenous collateral," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4-5), pages 439-462, August.
    4. John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey, 1989. "Liquidity and Bankruptcy with Incomplete Markets: Pure Exchange," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 900, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics,in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
    6. Fajardo, Jose, 2005. "A note on arbitrage and exogenous collateral," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 336-341, November.
    7. Mariano Steinert & Juan Pablo Torres-Martínez, 2004. "General equilibrium existence with asset-backed securitization," Textos para discussão 490, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    8. Elyégs Jouini & Hédi Kallal, 1995. "Arbitrage In Securities Markets With Short-Sales Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 197-232.
    9. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
    10. Donald A. Walker (ed.), 2000. "Equilibrium," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1585.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Xavier Sala I Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Jointness of Determinants of Economics Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schleicher, Christoph & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 280-305, March.
    4. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item


    Model Uncertainty; Financial Crises; Bayesian Inference; AIC; Kullback Leibler; Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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