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Real Time Econometrics

  • Pesaran, M Hashem
  • Timmermann, Allan G

This Paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker’s actions to the data-generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4402.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4402
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  1. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hendry, David F., 2005. "A Dialogue Concerning A New Instrument For Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 278-297, February.
  4. Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A., 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  6. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Aaron Schiff & Peter Phillips, 2000. "Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 159-181.
  8. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
  12. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C26-C52, March.
  13. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
  14. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Egginton, Donald & Andreas Pick & Shaun P. Vahey, 2002. "Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 69, Royal Economic Society.
  18. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  20. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
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