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An automated econometric decision support system: forecasts for foreign exchange trades

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Brandl

    ()

  • Christian Keber
  • Matthias Schuster

Abstract

Making decisions challenges foreign exchange (FX) market brokers due to the volatility of the foreign exchange market, as well as the unmanageable flood of possibly relevant information. Thus, decision making in this complex and dynamically changing environment is a difficult task requiring automated decision support systems. In this contribution, we describe an econometric decision support approach, which enables the extraction of essential information indispensable to set up accurate forecasting models. Our approach is based on a genetic algorithm (GA) and applies the resulting models to forecast daily EUR/USD-exchange rates. In doing so, the genetic algorithm optimizes single-equation regression forecast models. The approach discussed is new in literature and, moreover, allows flexibility in automated model selection within a reasonably short time. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Brandl & Christian Keber & Matthias Schuster, 2006. "An automated econometric decision support system: forecasts for foreign exchange trades," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 14(4), pages 401-415, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:14:y:2006:i:4:p:401-415
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-006-0013-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
    2. Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 212-231, February.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    4. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    5. Vilasuso Jon & Cunningham Steve, 1996. "Tests for Nonlinearity in EMS Exchange Rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    7. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
    8. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 3-20, February.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    2. Milan Vaclavik & Josef Jablonsky, 2012. "Revisions of modern portfolio theory optimization model," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(3), pages 473-483, September.

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