Forecasting Ability but No Profitability: an Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-Optimized Technical Trading Rules
This paper evaluates the performance of several popular technical trading rules applied to the Australian share market. The optimal trading rule parameter values over the in-sample period of 4/1/82 to 31/12/89 are found using a genetic algorithm. These optimal rules are then evaluated in terms of their forecasting ability and economic profitability during the out-of-sample period from 2/1/90 to the 31/12/97. The results indicate that the optimal rules outperform the benchmark given by a risk-adjusted buy and hold strategy. The rules display some evidence of forecasting ability and profitability over the entire test period. But an examination of the results for the sub-periods indicates that the excess returns decline over time and are negative during the last couple of years. Also, once an adjustment for non-synchronous trading bias is made, the rules display very little, if any, evidence of profitability.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/economics|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998.
"The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1311-1333, 08.
- Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm85, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-013, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2004. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm30, Yale School of Management.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns,"
90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989.
"Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models,"
NBER Working Papers
3001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-67.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1989. "Data-snooping biases in tests of financial asset pricing models," Working papers 3020-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997.
"Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach,"
1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
- Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
- Sweeney, Richard J., 1988. "Some New Filter Rule Tests: Methods and Results," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 285-300, September.
- Corrado, Charles J & Lee, Suk-Hun, 1992.
"Filter Rule Tests of the Economic Significance of Serial Dependencies in Daily Stock Returns,"
Journal of Financial Research,
Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-87, Winter.
- Charles J. Corrado & Suk-Hun Lee, 1992. "Filter Rule Tests Of The Economic Significance Of Serial Dependencies In Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-387, December.
- Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
- Mahendra Raj & David Thurston, 1996. "Effectiveness of simple technical trading rules in the Hong Kong futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 33-36.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:1999.06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephen Scoglio)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stephen Scoglio to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.