Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches
This paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants' behavior: statistical learning and fitness learning. These learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors: chartist and fundamentalist rules. We examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model. We find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering. None of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non-normally distributed returns.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1998.
"Learning in games,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 631-639, May.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004.
"How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Marsh, Ian W, 1999. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ian Marsh & Menzie Chinn & Yin-Wong Cheung, 1999. "How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," Working Papers wp99-21, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986.
"Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: evidence from survey data,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
292, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, 08.
- Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000.
"Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Milani, Fabio, 2007.
"Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
- Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E, 1984. "Financial Innovations and the Interest Elasticity of Money Demand: Some Historical Evidence: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 247-52, May.
- Benassy-Quere, A. & Larribeau, S. & MacDonald, R., 1999.
"Models of Exchange Rate Expectations: Heterogeneous Evidence from Panel Data,"
99-02, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- A. Bénassy-Quéré & S. Larribeau & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Models of exchange rate expectations : heterogeneous evidence from Panel data," THEMA Working Papers 99-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Larribeau & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Models of Exchange Rate Expectations: Heterogeneous Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers 1999-03, CEPII research center.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1997. "Individual Learning in Normal Form Games: Some Laboratory Results," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-76, April.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:42-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.