Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
Two well-known, but seemingly contradictory, features of exchange rates are that they are close to a random walk while at the same time exchange rate changes are predictable by interest rate di erentials. In this paper we investigate whether these two features of the data may in fact be related. In particular, we ask whether the predictability of exchange rates by interest di erentials naturally results when participants in the FX market adopt random walk expectations. We nd that random walk expectations can explain the forward premium puzzle, but only if FX portfolio positions are revised infrequently. In contrast, with frequent portfolio adjustment and random walk expectations, we nd that high interest rate currencies depreciate much more than what UIP would predict.
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"The Returns to Currency Speculation,"
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864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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