IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1935.html

Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Eric van Wincoop

    (University of Virginia - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictability reversal puzzle; iv) the Engel puzzle (high interest rate currencies are stronger than implied by UIP); v) the forward guidance exchange rate puzzle; vi) the absence of a forward discount puzzle with long-term bonds. These results are derived analytically in a simple two-country model with portfolio adjustment costs. Quantitatively, this approach can match all targeted moments related to these puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2019. "Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414966
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Lafarguette, Romain & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "Fast trading and the virtue of entropy: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Paper Series 2300, European Central Bank.
    3. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    4. Fabienne Schneider, 2024. "On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access," Working Papers 24.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    5. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Simon Tièche & Eric van & Ralph Koijen, 2023. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(10), pages 4233-4270.
    7. André, Marine-Charlotte & Traficante, Guido, 2020. "Forward Guidance in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 104600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Munkhbayar Gantumur, 2023. "An estimated model of a commodity-exporting economy for the integrated policy framework: evidence from Mongolia," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 651-708, October.
    9. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo & Valenzuela, Gabriel, 2025. "The valuation of economic recovery: The case for investment-led fiscal spending policies in open economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Yang, Xiaoliang, 2023. "Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Fabienne Schneider, 2025. "On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access," Staff Working Papers 25-19, Bank of Canada.
    12. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Measuring multiple monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Bacchetta, Philippe & Davenport, Margaret & van Wincoop, Eric, 2022. "Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Ortiz, Marco & Miyahara, Ken, 2022. "Portfolio shocks and the financial accelerator in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 114224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rong Li & Dongzhou Mei & Bing Tong, 2024. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Open Market Operations," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    16. Dalgic, Husnu & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2024. "Business Cycle Insurance, Inflation and Currency Returns," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302436, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2025. "When Is Liquidity Bad?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_723, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    18. Husnu C. Dalgic & Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2025. "Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_717, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    20. Jordi Galí, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 465-496, December.
    21. Lei, Jian, 2021. "Curve momentum in currency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    22. Heipertz, Jonas & Mihov, Ilian & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2022. "Managing macroeconomic fluctuations with flexible exchange rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.