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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model

Author

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  • Marcin Kolasa
  • Sahil Ravgotra
  • Pawel Zabczyk

Abstract

We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents a la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several ``puzzling" aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and helps explain why some of them only arise in the nested case of rational expectations. Bayesian estimation of the model demonstrates that a high degree of ``cognitive discounting" significantly improves empirical fit. We also show that this form of bounded rationality makes positive international monetary spillovers more likely and exacerbates the unit root problem in small open economy models with incomplete markets. On the normative side, the model with behavioral agents provides arguments against using the exchange rate as a nominal anchor.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Kolasa & Sahil Ravgotra & Pawel Zabczyk, 2025. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model," KAE Working Papers 2025-111, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2025111
    DOI: 10.33119/kaewps2025111
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1333
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    2. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Kolasa, Marcin & Lindé, Jesper & Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2024. "Central Bank Exit Strategies: Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 19087, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Andrew Binning, 2024. "Calculating Government Consumption Multipliers in New Zealand Using an Estimated DSGE Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 24/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Agustín Arias & Benjamín García & Ignacio Rojas, 2023. "Forward Guidance: Estimating a Behavioral DSGE Model with System Priors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 994, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Na, Seunghoon & Xie, Yinxi, 2025. "Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Yang Yang & Ren Zhang & Shuwei Zhang, 2024. "Deciphering Dollar Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Working Papers 2024-04, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2024.
    9. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2025. "When Is Liquidity Bad?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_723, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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