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Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model

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  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Ravgotra, Sahil
  • Zabczyk, Pawel

Abstract

We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents á la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and helps explain why some of them only arise in the nested case of rational expectations. Bayesian estimation of the model demonstrates that a high degree of “cognitive discounting” significantly improves empirical fit. We also show that this form of bounded rationality makes positive international monetary spillovers more likely and exacerbates the unit root problem in small open economy models with incomplete markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:155:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625000431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104087
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    Cited by:

    1. Erceg, Christopher J. & Kolasa, Marcin & Lindé, Jesper & Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2024. "Central Bank Exit Strategies: Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 19087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Andrew Binning, 2024. "Calculating Government Consumption Multipliers in New Zealand Using an Estimated DSGE Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 24/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Yang Yang & Ren Zhang & Shuwei Zhang, 2024. "Deciphering Dollar Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Working Papers 2024-04, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2024.
    4. Agustín Arias & Benjamín García & Ignacio Rojas, 2023. "Forward Guidance: Estimating a Behavioral DSGE Model with System Priors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 994, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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