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Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

  • Cosmin Ilut

High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 33-65

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:33-65
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.33
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro
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  1. Strzalecki, Tomasz, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Scholarly Articles 14397610, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
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  8. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 527, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
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  11. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
  12. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  13. Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April.
  14. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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