Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle
Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high-interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the 'forward discount puzzle.' Using data from the European Monetary System (EMS), the authors find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates. That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way that is dependent upon the exchange rate regime. By using the many EMS realignments, the authors are also able to quantify the 'peso problem.' Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.
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Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
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- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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