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Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

  • Cosmin L. Ilut

High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low-interest-rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered-interest-parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange-rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex-post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, ex-post profitability and negative skewness of currency speculation payoffs.

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Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 10-53.

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Length: 57
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-53
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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  2. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-047, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  4. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics.
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  7. Strzalecki, Tomasz, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Scholarly Articles 14397610, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  9. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
  11. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.
  12. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "New Evidence on the Puzzles: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 5, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
  14. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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