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An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kaili Chen
  • Marcin Kolasa
  • Jesper Lindé
  • Hou Wang
  • Pawel Zabczyk
  • Ms. Jianping Zhou

Abstract

We estimate a New Keynesian small open economy model which allows for foreign exchange (FX) market frictions and a potential role for FX interventions for a large set of emerging market economies (EMEs) and some inflation targeting (IT) advanced economy (AE) countries serving as a control group. Next, we use the estimated model to examine the empirical support for the view that interest rate policy may not be sufficient to stabilize output and inflation following capital outflow shocks, and the extent to which FX interventions (FXI) can improve policy tradeoffs. Our results reveal significant structural differences between AEs and EMEs—in particular FX market depth—leading to different transmission of capital outflow shocks which justifies occasional use of FXI in some EMEs in certain situations. Our analysis also highlights the critical importance of accounting for the endogeneity of FXI behavior when assessing FX market depth and policy tradeoffs associated with volatile capital flows in past episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaili Chen & Marcin Kolasa & Jesper Lindé & Hou Wang & Pawel Zabczyk & Ms. Jianping Zhou, 2023. "An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2023/135, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/135
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Carlos Goncalves & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé, 2023. "Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/260, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Meylis Orazov, 2023. "The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Financial Frictions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 3-43, December.

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