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Bounded Rationality, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability

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  • Francisco Ilabaca

    () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • Greta Meggiorini

    () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • Fabio Milani

    () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

This paper estimates a Behavioral New Keynesian model to revisit the evidence that passive US monetary policy in the pre-1979 sample led to indeterminate equilibria and sunspot-driven fluctuations, while active policy after 1982, by satisfying the Taylor principle, was instrumental in restoring macroeconomic stability. The model assumes "cognitive discounting", i.e., consumers and firms pay less attention to variables further into the future. We estimate the model allowing for both determinacy and indeterminacy. The empirical results show that determinacy is preferred both before and after 1979. Even if monetary policy is found to react only mildly to inflation pre-Volcker, the substantial degrees of bounded rationality that we estimate prevent the economy from falling into indeterminacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Ilabaca & Greta Meggiorini & Fabio Milani, 2019. "Bounded Rationality, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers 181906, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:181906
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    File URL: https://www.economics.uci.edu/research/wp/1819/18-19-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Gabaix, 2014. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1661-1710.
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    Keywords

    Behavioral New Keynesian model; Cognitive discounting; Myopia; Estimation under determinacy and indeterminacy; Taylor principle; Active vs passive monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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