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A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

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  • Seunghoon Na
  • Yinxi Xie

Abstract

This paper investigates exchange rate dynamics in open economies by incorporating bounded rationality. We develop a small open-economy New Keynesian model with an incomplete asset market, wherein decision-makers possess limited foresight and can plan for only a finite distance into the future. The equilibrium dynamics depend on the degree of foresight and the decision-makers’ belief-updating behaviors that approximate continuation values at the end of their planning horizons. This limited foresight leads to persistent, non-monotonic forecast errors in the real exchange rate across time horizons and distinguishes between short- and long-term expectations. This framework hence provides a micro-foundation for understanding time-horizon variability in uncovered interest parity puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Seunghoon Na & Yinxi Xie, 2023. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight," Staff Working Papers 23-44, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-44
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2023-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
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    3. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    4. Woodford, Michael & Xie, Yinxi, 2022. "Fiscal and monetary stabilization policy at the zero lower bound: Consequences of limited foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 18-35.
    5. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2020. "A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 27420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    7. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
    8. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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