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Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock

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  • Hassan, Tarek A.
  • Mertens, Thomas M.
  • Zhang, Tony

Abstract

We investigate the link between stochastic properties of exchange rates and differences in capital-output ratios across industrialized countries. To this end, we endogenize capital accumulation within a standard model of exchange rate determination with nontraded goods. The model predicts that currencies of countries that are more “systemic” for the world economy (countries that face particularly volatile shocks or account for a large share of world GDP) appreciate when the price of traded goods in world markets is high. These currencies are better hedges against consumption risk faced by international investors because they appreciate in “bad” states of the world. As a consequence, more systemic countries face a lower cost of capital and accumulate more capital per worker. We estimate our model using data from seven industrialized countries with freely floating exchange rate regimes between 1984 and 2010 and show that cross-country variation in the stochastic properties of exchange rates accounts for 72% of the cross-country variation in capital-output ratios. In this sense, the stochastic properties of exchange rates map to fundamentals in the way predicted by the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:s1:p:s43-s57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Weithing Zhang & Thomas Mertens & Tarek Hassan, 2014. "Currency Manipulation," 2014 Meeting Papers 401, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2020. "A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization," Working Paper Series 2016-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, december.
    5. Sticca, Ralph Melles & Nakao, Silvio Hiroshi, 2019. "Hedge accounting choice as exchange loss avoidance under financial crisis: Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    8. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate disconnect; Capital accumulation; International capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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