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A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?

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  • Nedra Baklouti

    (University of Sfax)

  • Younes Boujelbene

    (University of Sfax)

Abstract

The shadow economy is a complex phenomenon present, to a large extent, in the developing, and the developed countries. This study builds a dynamic simultaneous equation model that establishes an inter-connection between economic growth and the shadow economy for 17 developing and 33 developed countries over the 2005–2015 period. Using the data of the shadow economy size from Medina and Schneider (2018), we found that the relationship between economic growth and the underground economy is unidirectional in the MENA countries, but it is bidirectional in the OECD countries. The results also suggested that institutional quality interacts strongly with the relationship between economic growth and the underground economy. More specifically, we found that a higher GDP per capita is associated with a smaller shadow economy in countries with a good institutional quality. However, in countries where institutional quality is low, the increase of GDP per capita does not influence the size of the underground economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:53:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10644-018-9235-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-018-9235-8
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    3. Khorana, Sangeeta & Caram, Santiago & Biagetti, Marco, 2021. "Vicious Circle or New Paradigm? Exploring the Impact of Shadow Economy on Labour Market in Latin America and Eurozone," GLO Discussion Paper Series 983, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Aysel Amir & Korhan Gökmenoğlu, 2023. "Analyzing the Drivers of the Shadow Economy for the Case of the CESEE Region," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 155-181, February.
    5. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Mohsin Ali & Faheem Ur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Mohammed Aljuaid, 2022. "Advance Dynamic Panel Second-Generation Two-Step System Generalized Method of Movement Modeling: Applications in Economic Stability-Shadow Economy Nexus with a Special Case of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Atangana Ondoa Henri & Seabrook Arthur Mveng, 2022. "Did state antiquity matter for the size of the informal economy?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 115-131, June.
    7. Loudi Njoya & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Simplice A. Asongu & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "The role of economic prosperity on informality in Africa: evidence of corruption thresholds from PSTR," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/012, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Aldo Salinas & Cristian Ortiz & Pablo Ponce & Javier Changoluisa, 2023. "Does tourism activity reduce the size of the informal economy? Capturing long-term heterogeneous linkages around the world," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 305-347, March.
    9. Younas, Zahid Irshad & Qureshi, Atiqa & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Financial inclusion, the shadow economy and economic growth in developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 613-621.
    10. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Economic growth; OECD countries; MENA countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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