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The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model

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  • Sahnoun, Marwa
  • Abdennadher, Chokri

Abstract

This paper studies the effects and causal links between the shadow economy and the unemployment rate using a dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data model for 38 developing and 40 developed countries over the 2000−2015 period. The analysis suggests that there is a unidirectional and negative causality running from the unemployment rate to the shadow economy in the developing countries. However, in the developed countries, there is a bidirectional and negative causal relationship between the shadow economy and unemployment rate. The sensitivity of the results makes the authors realize that institutional quality interacts strongly with the relationship between the shadow economy and the unemployment rate. In countries with a good institutional quality, the unemployment rate is associated with a weak informal economy, whereas in countries with low institutional quality, it strongly drives the informal economy.

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  • Sahnoun, Marwa & Abdennadher, Chokri, 2019. "The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201930
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    1. Sefa Karagoz, 2020. "The Importance of the Informal Economy for Social Policy," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 479-505, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; unemployment rate; institutional quality; dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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