Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach
We estimate the size and trend of the Egyptian shadow economy using two of the most commonly used methods: the currency demand approach and the structural equation MIMIC model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate an index of the size of the shadow economy in Egypt during the last four decades (1976 to 2013). We address the long term association between the variables, relax the assumption of multivariate normality and demonstrate different scenarios of constraining the reference variable in the MIMIC model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables used in the literature, we consider variables that are specifically related to the Egyptian economy such as self-employment, agricultural importance and a proxy for institutional quality of democratic institutions. Our results indicate a decreasing trend of the size of the shadow economy, yet it still has a huge weight on the official GDP for a developing country like Egypt leading to some negative externalities and thus hindering the development of the country.
Volume (Year): 3 (2016)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Istanbul, Turkey|
Web page: http://www.kspjournals.org
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zellner, Arnold, 1970. "Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 441-454, October.
- Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2013. "Impact of education on the shadow economy: Institutions matter," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2052-2063.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Schneider, Friedrich, 2005.
"Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2004. "Shadow Economies around the World: What do we really know?," IAW Discussion Papers 16, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
- Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. " Estimating the Size of the Danish Shadow Economy Using the Currency Demand Approach: An Attempt," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 643-668.
- Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strom, Steiner, 1985. "The Size and Growth of the Hidden Economy in Norway," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 31(1), pages 21-38, March.
- Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Chapters,in: The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply, pages 1-37 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number caga58-1, October.
- Andreas Buehn, 2012. "The Shadow Economy in G erman Regions: An Empirical Assessment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(3), pages 275-290, 08.
- Hans-Georg Petersen & Ulrich Thiessen & Pierre Wohlleben, 2010. "Shadow Economy, Tax Evasion, and Transfer Fraud - Definition, Measurement, and Data Problems," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 421-441.
- Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar, 1985. "The Size and Growth of the Hidden Economy in Norway," MPRA Paper 80748, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1985.
- Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2007. "The Monetary Method And The Size Of The Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 363-371, 06.
- Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2007. "The monetary method and the size of the shadow economy: A critical assessment," Post-Print hal-00812851, HAL.
- Colin C. Williams, 2006. "Evaluating the magnitude of the shadow economy: a direct survey approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(5), pages 369-385, November.
- Offiong Helen Solomon & Sibhaa Shrestha, 2014. "Does the informal sector thrive under democracy or autocracy? the case of Nepal," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 245-267, July-Sept.
- Tedds, Lindsay, 2005. "The Underground Economy in Canada," MPRA Paper 4229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
- Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2012. "Measuring the underground economy with the currency demand approach: a reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 864, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Phillip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to the Total Money Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 303-303. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:309-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bilal KARGI)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.