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Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach

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  • Mai HASSAN
  • Friedrich SCHNEIDER

    (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University, Austria.)

Abstract

We estimate the size and trend of the Egyptian shadow economy using two of the most commonly used methods: the currency demand approach and the structural equation MIMIC model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate an index of the size of the shadow economy in Egypt during the last four decades (1976 to 2013). We address the long term association between the variables, relax the assumption of multivariate normality and demonstrate different scenarios of constraining the reference variable in the MIMIC model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables used in the literature, we consider variables that are specifically related to the Egyptian economy such as self-employment, agricultural importance and a proxy for institutional quality of democratic institutions. Our results indicate a decreasing trend of the size of the shadow economy, yet it still has a huge weight on the official GDP for a developing country like Egypt leading to some negative externalities and thus hindering the development of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai HASSAN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 309-339, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:309-339
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    3. Mohammed Nayel Abu Alfoul & Ibrahim Naser Khatatbeh & Fouad Jamaani, 2022. "What Determines the Shadow Economy? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.
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    5. Evgeniya Baturina & Alexander Litvinenko, 2018. "Monitoring of Shadow Cash Flows Using Computer Modelling," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 326-338.
    6. Pasovic Edin & Efendic Adnan S., 2018. "Informal Economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina – An Empirical Investigation," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 112-125, December.
    7. Hassan, Mai & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 157 Countries Worldwide: Updated and New Measures from 1999 to 2013," IZA Discussion Papers 10281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Glenn Abela & Tiziana Gauci & Noel Rapa, 2022. "An Analysis of The Shadow Economy in Malta: A Currency Demand and MIMIC Model Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 41-50.
    10. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.
    11. James Murunga & Nelson W. Wawire & Moses K. Muriithi, 2021. "Tax Revenue Productivity of Tax Reforms in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(12), pages 1-42, December.
    12. Christoforos Andreou & Elena Andreou & Stephanie Michael & George Syrichas, 2021. "The Shadow Economy in Cyprus: Evidence from the Electricity Consumption and Currency Demand Methods," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 15(1), pages 46-74, June.
    13. Sahnoun, Marwa & Abdennadher, Chokri, 2019. "The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    15. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2020. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 427-453, August.
    16. Dasgupta, Manjira, 2017. "Moving towards "Cashlessness" in an emerging economy: A case study of latest policy steps in India," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162907, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Bennihi, Aymen Salah & Bouriche, Lahcene & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "The informal economy in Algeria: New insights using the MIMIC approach and the interaction with the formal economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 470-491.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy of Egypt; MIMIC; CDA.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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