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The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio approach

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  • Pickhardt, Michael
  • Sarda, Jordi

Abstract

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Pickhardt, Michael & Sarda, Jordi, 2010. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio approach," CAWM Discussion Papers 36, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:36
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2011. "Measuring the Shadow Economy with the Currency Demand Approach - A Reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy," Working papers 22, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    3. Claudio Quintano & Paolo Mazzocchi, 2018. "Behind the GDP: some remarks on the shadow economy in Mediterranean countries," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 147-173, February.
    4. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, "undated". "Cash, Hoarding and the Underground Economy," Working Papers 201282, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    5. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, 2015. "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: a correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 403-429, April.
    6. Amendolagine, Vito & Capolupo, Rosa & Ferri, Giovanni, 2014. "Innovativeness, offshoring and black economy decisions. Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1153-1166.
    7. Brugt Kazemier & Arjan Bruil & Annemieke van de Steeg & Marieke Rensman, 2013. "The Contribution of Illegal Activities to National Income in the Netherlands," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 544-577, September.
    8. Mai HASSAN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 309-339, June.
    9. Hajilee, Massomeh & Niroomand, Farhang, 2021. "Is there an asymmetric link between the shadow economy and the financial depth of emerging market economies?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    10. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    11. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    12. Paul Vivien OYIBO & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2022. "How large is the size of Côte d'Ivoire's informal sector? A MIMIC approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(633), W), pages 205-216, Winter.
    13. Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz, 2012. "The Nature of Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz (ed.), Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    underground economy; shadow economy; cash-depositratio; currency demand approach; MIMIC approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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