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The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Hildegart Ahumada

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Facundo Alvaredo

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires])

  • Alfredo Canavese

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires])

Abstract

We show that when the money demand function used to estimate the size of the shadow economy includes the lagged dependent variable, the need to assume a known initial condition reappears as it was the case in the early monetary methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2008. "The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00812857, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-00812857
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2008.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phillip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to the Total Money Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 303-303.
    2. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
    3. Hildegart Ahumada & Facundo Alvaredo & Alfredo Canavese, 2007. "The Monetary Method And The Size Of The Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 363-371, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Dell'Anno & Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 627-646, November.
    2. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2010. "The Size of Informal Economy in Pakistan," Working Papers id:2493, eSocialSciences.
    3. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    4. Gerhard Graf, 2011. "Some stylised facts about cash and black economies in Germany," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 51-67, August.
    5. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2017. "On Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 18(1), pages 99-111, February.
    6. Rios, Vicente, 2019. "New Evidence on the Size and Drivers of the Shadow Economy in Spain: A Model Averaging Approach," MPRA Paper 97504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Betty Annan & William Bekoe & Edward Nketiah-Amponsah, 2013. "Determinants of Tax Evasion in Ghana: 1970-2010," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(3), pages 97-121, December.
    8. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    9. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    10. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2020. "Measuring the uncertainty of shadow economy estimates using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging," KAE Working Papers 2020-046, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, "undated". "Cash, Hoarding and the Underground Economy," Working Papers 201282, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    12. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "Measuring the model uncertainty of shadow economy estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1069-1106, August.
    13. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda, 2011. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: a correction of the record and new evidence from the modified-cash-deposit-ratio approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 143-163, August.
    14. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, 2015. "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: a correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 403-429, April.
    15. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi & Purnomo, Kuntarto, 2011. "Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Dari Underground Economy Di Indonesia [underground economy activities in Indonesia]," MPRA Paper 65608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    17. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2015. "Analysis of the shadow economy in the Spanish regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1049-1064.
    18. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    19. Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz, 2012. "The Nature of Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz (ed.), Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Philippe Adair, 2017. "Non-Observed Economy vs. the Shadow Economy in the EU: The Accuracy of Measurements Methods and Estimates revisited," Post-Print hal-01683929, HAL.
    21. Hajilee, Massomeh & Stringer, Donna Y. & Hayes, Linda A., 2021. "On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 303-316.
    22. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.
    23. Matti Viren, 2015. "Why so little revenues are obtained from a presumed large shadow economy?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 101-123, May.

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