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MIMIC Models, Cointegration and Error Correction: An Application to the French Shadow Economy

Author

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  • Buehn, Andreas

    () (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS))

  • Schneider, Friedrich

    () (University of Linz)

Abstract

The analysis of economic loss attributed to the shadow economy has attracted much attention in recent years by both academics and policy makers. Often, multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models are applied to time series data estimating the size and development of the shadow economy for a particular country. This type of model derives information about the relationship between cause and indicator variables and a latent variable, here the shadow economy, from covariance structures. As most macroeconomic variables do not satisfy stationarity, long run information is lost when employing first differences. Arguably, this shortcoming is rooted in the lack of an appropriate MIMIC model which considers cointegration among variables. This paper develops a MIMIC model which estimates the cointegration equilibrium relationship and the error correction short run dynamics, thereby retaining information for the long run. Using France as our example, we demonstrate that this approach allows researchers to obtain more accurate estimates about the size and development of the shadow economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Buehn, Andreas & Schneider, Friedrich, 2008. "MIMIC Models, Cointegration and Error Correction: An Application to the French Shadow Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 3306, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
    3. Annette Mummert & Friedrich Schneider, 2001. "The German Shadow Economy: Parted in a United Germany?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 286-286, July.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    5. Schneider, Friedrich, 1994. "Can the Shadow Economy Be Reduced through Major Tax Reforms? An Empirical Investigation for Austria," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(Supplemen), pages 137-152.
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    Cited by:

    1. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2016. "LINS Curve in Romanian Economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(41), pages 136-136, February.
    3. Óscar Afonso & Nuno Gonçalves & Hélder Ferreira, 2015. "Economia informal e exclusão social," OBEGEF Working Papers 038, OBEGEF - Observatório de Economia e Gestão de Fraude;OBEGEF Working Papers on Fraud and Corruption.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; tax burden; regulation; unemployment; cointegration; error correction models; MIMIC models;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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