Illegal Trade in the Iranian Economy: Evidence from a Structural Model
This study investigates the main causes and consequences of import and export smuggling and estimates the relative index of smuggling in Iran from 1970 to 2002. The Multiple Indicators - Multiple Causes (MIMIC) econometric modelling is used for a comprehensive analysis of the latent variable of smuggling. The main results of this paper indicate that the rate of fine for smuggling and the general level of education reduce smuggling, while the tariff burden increases the incentives for illegal trade. More trade openness accompanies more illegal trade for the case of Iran. On average, the relative size of smuggling is about 13% of the total trade in Iran. The absolute amount of smuggling per year is about $3 billion.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brunetti, Aymo & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "A free press is bad news for corruption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(7-8), pages 1801-1824, August.
- Rafael Di Tella & Alberto Ades, 1999. "Rents, Competition, and Corruption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 982-993, September.
- Bhagwati, Jagdish & Srinivasan, T. N., 1973.
"Smuggling and trade policy,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 377-389.
- Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
- Phylaktis, Kate, 1991. "The black market for dollars in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 155-172, November.
- Alano, Bienvenido Jr. P., 1984. "Import Smuggling in the Philippines: An Economic Analysis," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1984 Vol. XI No. 2-a, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
- Biswas, Amit K. & Marjit, Sugata, 2007. "Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 130-138.
- Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2011.
"Smuggling around the World: Evidence from a Structural Equation Model,"
- Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
- Raymond Fisman & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Corruption, Norms, and Legal Enforcement: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 1020-1048, December.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2004.
"Shadow Economies around the World: What do we really know?,"
IAW Discussion Papers
16, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
- Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
- Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 2000. "Shadow Economies Around the World; Size, Causes, and Consequences," IMF Working Papers 00/26, International Monetary Fund.
- Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
- Rauch, James E. & Evans, Peter B., 2000.
"Bureaucratic structure and bureaucratic performance in less developed countries,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 49-71, January.
- Rauch, James E & Evans, Peter B., 1999. "Bureaucratic Structure and Bureaucratic Performance in Less Developed Countries," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0sb0w38d, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Donogh C. McDonald, 1985. "Trade Data Discrepancies and the Incentive to Smuggle: An Empirical Analysis (Divergences dans les donnÃ©es sur les Ã©changes commerciaux et attrait de la contrebande: analyse empirique) (Discrepancia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 668-692, December.
- Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008.
"Gotcha! A profile of smuggling in international trade,"
2008/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 2475, CESifo Group Munich.
- Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009.
"The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques,"
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics,
American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
- Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," NBER Working Papers 13446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tavares, Samia Costa, 2007. "Do rapid political and trade liberalizations increase corruption?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1053-1076, December.
- Loayza, Norman V., 1996.
"The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
- Loayza, Norman A., 1997. "The economics of the informal sector : a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1727, The World Bank.
- Eilat, Yair & Zinnes, Clifford, 2002. "The Shadow Economy in Transition Countries: Friend or Foe? A Policy Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1254, July.
- Helleiner, G. K., 1990. "Trade strategy in medium-term adjustment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 879-897, June.
- Miguel Braun & Rafael Di tella, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 77-100, 03.
- Jagdish Bhagwati & Bent Hansen, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 172-187.
- Thursby, M. & Jensen, R. & Thursby, J., 1991.
"Smuggling, Camouflaging, and Market Structure,"
Purdue University Economics Working Papers
1005, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
- Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2006.
"Did Iraq Cheat the United Nations? Underpricing, Bribes, and the Oil for Food Program,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 121(4), pages 1211-1248.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2005. "Did Iraq Cheat the United Nations? Underpricing, Bribes, and the Oil for Food Program," NBER Working Papers 11202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.
- Richard Clay Barnett, 2003. "Smuggling, non-fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 701-727, August.
- Guillaume R. Fréchette, 2006. "Panel Data Analysis of the Time-Varying Determinants of Corruption," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-28, CIRANO.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
- Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
- Martin, Lawrence & Panagariya, Arvind, 1984. "Smuggling, trade, and price disparity: A crime-theoretic approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 201-217, November.
- Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1987. "Currency Incontrovertibility, Trade Taxes and Smuggling," NBER Working Papers 2177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pitt, Mark M., 1981. "Smuggling and price disparity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 447-458, November.
- Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Black Market Exchange Rate In Iran," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 144, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Anam, Mahmudul, 1982. "Distortion-triggered lobbying and welfare : A contribution to the theory of directly-unproductive profit-seeking activities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 15-32, August.
- Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Corruption, public finances, and the unofficial economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2169, The World Bank.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.