Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade
This paper explores official trade data to identify patterns of smuggling in international trade. Our main measure of interest is the difference in matched partner trade statistics, i.e., the extent to which the recorded export value in the source country deviates from the reportedimport value in the destination country. Analyzing 4-digit product level data for the world’s five largest importers for the period from 2002-2006, we find that the reporting gaps are highly correlated with the level of corruption in both partner countries. This finding supports the hypothesis that trade gaps partly represent smuggling activities.
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- Yeats, Alexander J, 1978. "On the Accuracy of Partner Country Trade Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 40(4), pages 341-61, November.
- Deardorff, A.V. & Stolper, W.F., 1988.
"Effects Of Smuggling Under African Conditions: A Factual, Institutional And Analytic Discussion,"
230, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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- Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009.
"The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques,"
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics,
American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
- Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," NBER Working Papers 13446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2008.
"What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
- Gabriela Inchauste & Mark Gradstein & Era Dabla-Norris, 2005. "What Causes Firms to Hide Output? the Determinants of Informality," IMF Working Papers 05/160, International Monetary Fund.
- Jagdish Bhagwati & Bent Hansen, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 172-187.
- David Hummels & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2006. "Are Matched Partner Trade Statistics a Usable Measure of Transportation Costs?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-86, 02.
- Rozanski, Jerzy & Yeats, Alexander, 1994. "On the (in)accuracy of economic observations: An assessment of trends in the reliability of international trade statistics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 103-130, June.
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