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Trade Mispricing and Illicit Flows

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  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

A potential vehicle to move capital unrecorded out of a country is the misinvoicing of international trade transactions. Exporters may understate the export revenue on their invoices and importers may overstate import expenditures, while their trading partners are instructed to deposit the balance for their benefit in a foreign account. Aiming to quantify the extent of trade mispricing, studies have analyzed asymmetries in matched partner trade statistics or examined price anomalies in transaction level price data. This paper critically reviews these empirical approaches and briefly describes an alternative methodology. Overall, the accuracy and reliability of estimates of illicit financial flows based on trade mispricing are questioned. In particular, it is argued that estimates of trade mispricing are critically dependent on assumptions on how to interpret observed asymmetries in trade statistics. For instance, various reasons for discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics are discussed, and incentives for faking trade invoices other than capital flight are highlighted. Also, aggregate trade data may mask considerable variation in trade discrepancies at the transaction level. Most notably, the importance of trade mispricing as a method for the unrecorded cross-border transfer of capital is generally unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitsch, Volker, 2011. "Trade Mispricing and Illicit Flows," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77397, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:77397
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/77397/
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    Cited by:

    1. Fawzi Banao & Bertrand Laporte, 2022. "Terrorism, Customs and fraudulent Gold exports in Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03889094, HAL.
    2. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019073, HAL.
    3. Cyril CHALENDARD, 2015. "Use of Internal Information, External Information Acquisition and Customs Underreporting," Working Papers 201522, CERDI.
    4. Emmanuel Ekow Asmah & Francis Kwaw Andoh & Edem Titriku, 2020. "Trade misinvoicing effects on tax revenue in sub‐Saharan Africa: The role of tax holidays and regulatory quality," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 649-672, December.
    5. Joel CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2016. "Décloisonner l’analyse des données pour appuyer la modernisation des douanes : une illustration à partir du Gabon," Working Papers 201618, CERDI.
    6. Cyril Chalendard, 2015. "Use of internal information, external information acquisition and customs underreporting," CERDI Working papers halshs-01179445, HAL.
    7. Mario Gara & Michele Giammatteo & Enrico Tosti, 2018. "Magic mirror in my hand�. how trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Carton, Christine & Slim, Sadri, 2018. "Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?," MPRA Paper 85703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cyril Chalendard & Gaël Raballand & Antsa Rakotoarisoa, 2019. "The use of detailed statistical data in customs reforms: The case of Madagascar," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 37(4), pages 546-563, July.
    10. Joël CARIOLLE & Cyril CHALENDARD & Anne-Marie GEOURJON & Bertrand LAPORTE, 2017. "Going beyond analysis of internal data to support customs modernization: a case study in Gabon," Working Papers P173, FERDI.
    11. Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "Trillion Dollar Estimate: Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80589, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    12. Alex Cobham & Petr Janský & Alex Prats, 2014. "Estimating Illicit Flows of Capital via Trade Mispricing: A Forensic Analysis of Data on Switzerland - Working Paper 350," Working Papers 350, Center for Global Development.
    13. Chandan Sharma & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2021. "Does financial development reduce the level of corruption? Evidence from a global sample of 140 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5093-5109, October.
    14. Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth & Elsig, Manfred & Espa, Ilaria, 2015. "The Commodity Sector and Related Governance Challenges from a Sustainable Development Perspective: The Example of Switzerland Current Research Gaps," Papers 865, World Trade Institute.

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