IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Illegal Trade in the Iranian Economy: Evidence from a Structural Model

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    ()

    (Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business Management and Economics.)

This study investigates the main causes and indicators of smuggling in both import and export sections of the Iranian Economy and estimates an absolute index of smuggling in Iran during the period 1970-2002. To this effect, Multiple Causes -Multiple Indicators (MIMIC) econometric modeling by LISREL software is applied. This model is ideal for providing a comprehensive analysis of the latent variable of smuggling. The main results of this paper indicate that the rate of fine on smuggling and the total unemployment rate have negative and significant effects on smuggling and that the tariff burden has a positive effect. Regarding the measurement part of the model, smuggling has a negative effect on real governmental revenues and the import price index. Furthermore, the positive effect of smuggling on the petroleum product consumption is also significant. The relative size of smuggling varied from about 6 to 25 percent of total trade in Iran.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.erf.org.eg/CMS/getFile.php?id=1216
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.erf.org.eg/cms.php?id=NEW_publication_details_working_papers&publication_id=965
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 409.

as
in new window

Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision: Jun 2008
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:409
Contact details of provider: Postal: 7 Boulos Hanna Street, Dokki, Cairo
Phone: 202-3370810
Fax: 202-3616042
Web page: http://www.erf.org.eg
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
  3. Guillaume R. Fréchette, 2006. "Panel Data Analysis of the Time-Varying Determinants of Corruption," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-28, CIRANO.
  4. Eilat, Yair & Zinnes, Clifford, 2002. "The Shadow Economy in Transition Countries: Friend or Foe? A Policy Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1254, July.
  5. Miguel Braun & Rafael Di tella, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 77-100, 03.
  6. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Srinivasan, T. N., 1973. "Smuggling and trade policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 377-389.
  7. Pitt, Mark M., 1981. "Smuggling and price disparity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 447-458, November.
  8. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Hansen, Bent, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 172-87, May.
  9. Friedrich Schneider, 2004. "Shadow Economies around the World: What do we really know?," IAW Discussion Papers 16, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
  10. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2008. "Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  11. Biswas, Amit K. & Marjit, Sugata, 2007. "Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 130-138.
  12. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June.
  13. Richard A. Jensen & Jerry Thursby & Marie Thursby, 1988. "Smuggling, Camouflaging, and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," NBER Working Papers 13446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
  16. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2006. "Did Iraq Cheat the United Nations? Underpricing, Bribes, and the Oil for Food Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(4), pages 1211-1248, November.
  17. Rauch, James E. & Evans, Peter B., 2000. "Bureaucratic structure and bureaucratic performance in less developed countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 49-71, January.
  18. Phylaktis, Kate, 1991. "The black market for dollars in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 155-172, November.
  19. Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
  20. Alano, Bienvenido Jr. P., 1984. "Import Smuggling in the Philippines: An Economic Analysis," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1984 Vol. XI No. 2-a, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  21. Tavares, Samia Costa, 2007. "Do rapid political and trade liberalizations increase corruption?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1053-1076, December.
  22. Rafael Di Tella & Alberto Ades, 1999. "Rents, Competition, and Corruption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 982-993, September.
  23. Donogh C. McDonald, 1985. "Trade Data Discrepancies and the Incentive to Smuggle: An Empirical Analysis (Divergences dans les données sur les échanges commerciaux et attrait de la contrebande: analyse empirique) (Discrepancia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 668-692, December.
  24. Raymond Fisman & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Corruption, Norms, and Legal Enforcement: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 1020-1048, December.
  25. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  26. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Black Market Exchange Rate In Iran," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 144, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  27. Helleiner, G. K., 1990. "Trade strategy in medium-term adjustment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 879-897, June.
  28. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1987. "Currency Incontrovertibility, Trade Taxes and Smuggling," NBER Working Papers 2177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
  30. Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Corruption, public finances, and the unofficial economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2169, The World Bank.
  31. Dornbusch, Rudiger, et al, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40, February.
  32. Martin, Lawrence & Panagariya, Arvind, 1984. "Smuggling, trade, and price disparity: A crime-theoretic approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 201-217, November.
  33. Brunetti, Aymo & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "A free press is bad news for corruption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(7-8), pages 1801-1824, August.
  34. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
  35. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  36. Richard Clay Barnett, 2003. "Smuggling, non-fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 701-727, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Namees Nabeel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.