IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i10p5761-d812288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Determines the Shadow Economy? An Extreme Bounds Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Nayel Abu Alfoul

    (Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, School of Business, Law and Entrepreneurship, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia)

  • Ibrahim Naser Khatatbeh

    (Department of Banking and Financial Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Hashemite University, Zarqa 591504, Jordan)

  • Fouad Jamaani

    (Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business Administration, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to identify the leading causes determining the shadow economy at the global level. The empirical analysis used was the Sala-i-Martin version of extreme bounds analysis (EBA) applied to a cross-sectional sample of 132 countries. The results suggested that the quality of institutions is the primary determinant of the shadow economy. The results showed that only four out of six factors of the quality of institutions proved to be robust determining factors of the shadow economy; they are bureaucracy quality, law and order, corruption, and internal conflict. Moreover, monetary freedom and secured property rights are also robust and negatively related to the shadow economy. An interesting result is that information and communication technology (ICT) development is vital to the shadow economy. Mainly, internet usage is robust and negatively associated with the shadow economy. Furthermore, inflation and poverty emerge as key determining factors of the shadow economy. Our findings will aid in the development of recommendations for potential strategies to minimize the international extent of the shadow economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Nayel Abu Alfoul & Ibrahim Naser Khatatbeh & Fouad Jamaani, 2022. "What Determines the Shadow Economy? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:5761-:d:812288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/10/5761/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/10/5761/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larissa Batrancea & Anca Nichita & Ioan Batrancea & Lucian Gaban, 2018. "The Strenght of the Relationship Between Shadow Economy and Corruption: Evidence from a Worldwide Country-Sample," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 1119-1143, August.
    2. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Schinckus, Christophe, 2019. "Institutions, economic openness and stock return co-movements: An empirical investigation in emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 137-147.
    4. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    5. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
    6. Mark Hallerberg & Guntram Wolff, 2008. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 379-396, September.
    7. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    9. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    10. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt26s710z8, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    11. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
    12. Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 215-238, July.
    13. Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2015. "Measuring Underground Economy Can Be Done, but It Is Difficult," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.
    14. Axel Dreher & Christos Kotsogiannis & Steve McCorriston, 2009. "How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 773-796, December.
    15. Hassan, Mai & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 157 Countries Worldwide: Updated and New Measures from 1999 to 2013," IZA Discussion Papers 10281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    17. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2016. "Is Informality a Barrier to Convergence?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2556-2568.
    18. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    19. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    20. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    21. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Give Me Liberty, or I Will Produce Underground: Effects of Economic Freedom on the Shadow Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 537-562, October.
    22. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    23. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay & Massimo Mastruzzi, 2004. "Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 18(2), pages 253-287.
    24. Park, Junghee, 2012. "Corruption, soundness of the banking sector, and economic growth: A cross-country study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 907-929.
    25. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Thanh, Su Dinh, 2020. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-54.
    26. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Roberto Dell’Anno & Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Nguling’wa Philip Balele, 2018. "Estimating shadow economy in Tanzania: an analysis with the MIMIC approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(1), pages 100-113, January.
    28. Mai HASSAN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 309-339, June.
    29. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    30. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    31. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    32. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    33. Friedrich Schneider & Désirée Teobaldelli, 2012. "Beyond the Veil of Ignorance: The Influence of Direct Democracy on the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 3749, CESifo.
    34. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    35. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    36. Elgin, Ceyhun, 2013. "Internet usage and the shadow economy: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-121.
    37. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
    38. Imad A. Moosa & Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh, 2021. "Robust and fragile determinants of the infection and case fatality rates of Covid-19: international cross-sectional evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 1225-1234, March.
    39. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    40. Su D. Thanh & Nguyen P. Canh, 2019. "Local Governance: Impacts of Fiscal Decentralization on Government Size and Spending Composition in Vietnam," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 311-340, December.
    41. Friedrich Schneider & Katharina Linsbauer & Friedrich Heinemann, 2015. "Religion and the Shadow Economy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 111-141, February.
    42. Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Determinants of Long-term Growth: New Results Applying Roboust Estimation and Extreme Bounds," TWI Research Paper Series 12, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    43. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894.
    44. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    45. Hoffman, Richard C. & Munemo, Jonathan & Watson, Sharon, 2016. "International Franchise Expansion: The Role of Institutions and Transaction Costs," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 101-114.
    46. Olson, Mancur, 1982. "Stagflation and the Political Economy of the Decline in Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 143-148, May.
    47. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
    48. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2020. "Poverty and the shadow economy: The role of governmental institutions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 921-947, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lompo, Miaba Louise & Ouoba, Marie Madeleine, 2022. "How they hide money? An investigation on tax evasion of large corporations and wealthy taxpayers," MPRA Paper 113410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lompo, Miaba Louise & Ouoba, Marie Madeleine, 2022. "How they hide money? An investigation on tax evasion of large corporations and wealthy taxpayers," MPRA Paper 114235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Sahnoun, Marwa & Abdennadher, Chokri, 2019. "The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    4. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.
    5. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    6. Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013; Some New Facts," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 83-116, May.
    7. Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "In the Shadow of the State – The Informal Economy and Informal Economy Labor Force," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 227-248, December.
    8. Khorana, Sangeeta & Caram, Santiago & Biagetti, Marco, 2021. "Vicious Circle or New Paradigm? Exploring the Impact of Shadow Economy on Labour Market in Latin America and Eurozone," GLO Discussion Paper Series 983, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Schneider, Friedrich, 2019. "Drivers of the underground economy for over a century: A long term look for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 95-106.
    10. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cong Minh Huynh & Vu Hong Thai Nguyen & Hoang Bao Nguyen & Phuc Canh Nguyen, 2020. "One-way effect or multiple-way causality: foreign direct investment, institutional quality and shadow economy?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 219-239, February.
    12. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    13. Psychoyios, Dimitrios & Missiou, Olympia & Dergiades, Theologos, 2021. "Energy based estimation of the shadow economy: The role of governance quality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 797-808.
    14. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    16. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    17. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    18. Rajeev K. Goel & Rati Ram & Friedrich Schneider & Ashley Potempa, 2020. "International movements of money and men: impact on the informal economy," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(1), pages 179-197, January.
    19. Medda, Tiziana & Palmisano, Flaviana & Sacchi, Agnese, 2022. "Informal we stand? The role of social progress around the world," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 660-675.
    20. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:5761-:d:812288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.