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Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?

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  • Pau Rabanal
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez

Abstract

Real exchange rates exhibit important low-frequency fluctuations. This makes the analysis of real exchange rates at all frequencies a more sound exercise than the typical business cycle one, which compares actual and simulated data after the Hodrick- Prescott Ölter is applied to both. A simple two-country, two-good, international real business cycle model can explain the volatility of the real exchange rate when all frequencies are studied. The puzzle is that the model generates too much persistence of the real exchange rate instead of too little, as the business cycle analysis asserts. We show that the introduction of input adjustment costs in production, cointegrated productivity shocks across countries, and lower home bias allows us to reconcile theory and this feature of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 2015-04, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2015-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 448-471, May.
    4. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2021. "Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 1330, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
    8. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 128-141.
    9. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo, 2013. "How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets," Working Papers 2013-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    11. Jiang, Shifu, 2017. "The cause of an integral correction mechanism of the real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 66-70.
    12. Caraiani, Petre, 2017. "Evaluating exchange rate forecasts along time and frequency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 60-81.
    13. Carter Mix & George Alessandria, 2017. "The Global Trade Slowdown: A Dynamic Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 907, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2019. "Trade Policy is Real News: A quantitative analysis of past, current, and future changes in U.S. trade barriers," 2019 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2017. "Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-114.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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