IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2010-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Federico S. Mandelman
  • Pau Rabanal
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez
  • Diego Vilan

Abstract

In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks into an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses several of the existing puzzles in the literature. In particular, we obtain a negative correlation of relative consumption and the terms of trade (Backus-Smith puzzle), as well as a more volatile real exchange rate, and cross-country output correlations that are higher than consumption correlations (price and quantity puzzles). Then we use data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the relative price of investment to build and estimate these IST processes across the United States and a \"rest of the world\" aggregate, showing that they are cointegrated and well represented by a vector error?correction model. Finally, we demonstrate that, when we fit such estimated IST processes into the model, the shocks are actually powerless to explain any of the existing puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico S. Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan, 2010. "Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2010-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/documents/pubs/wp/wp1003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Raffo, 2008. "Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles," 2008 Meeting Papers 511, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    3. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Not as Bad as You Think," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1108-1159.
    4. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle When Goods Prices Are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging, Not Equity Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 155-188, July.
    5. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    6. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
    9. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    10. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    11. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    12. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
    13. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864, Elsevier.
    14. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    15. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    16. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    17. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    18. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    19. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    21. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    25. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    26. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    27. Raffo, Andrea, 2008. "Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 14-29, May.
    28. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    30. Marianne Baxter & Dorsey Farr, 2001. "Variable Factor Utilization and International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    2. Akkoyun, Hüseyin Çağrı & Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2017. "Risk sharing and real exchange rates: The role of non-tradable sector and trend shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 232-248.
    3. Andrea Raffo, 2008. "Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles," 2008 Meeting Papers 511, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    5. Dey, Jaya, 2013. "The role of investment-specific technology shocks in driving international business cycles: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57803, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2014.
    6. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    7. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    8. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2017. "Understanding the cross-country effects of U.S. technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 143-164.
    9. Gao, Xiaodan & Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim, 2014. "Limited participation in international business cycle models: A formal evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 255-272.
    10. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    11. Aydan Dogan & Timo Bettendorf, 2018. "Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: Non-traded goods and cointegrated tfp Chockse," UB Economics Working Papers 2018/375, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB School of Economics.
    12. Hakon Tretvoll, 2013. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Recursive Preferences," 2013 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    14. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    15. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2006. "S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/36, European University Institute.
    16. Gianluca Benigno & Hande Küçük, 2012. "Portfolio allocation and international risk sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 535-565, May.
    17. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
    18. Hirata, Hideaki, 2014. "Preference shocks, international frictions, and international business cycles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 92-104.
    19. Dey, Jaya, 2017. "The Role Of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks In Driving International Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 555-598, April.
    20. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2010-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.