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Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: Non-traded goods and cointegrated tfp Chockse

Author

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  • Aydan Dogan

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Timo Bettendorf

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK-EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Aydan Dogan & Timo Bettendorf, 2018. "Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: Non-traded goods and cointegrated tfp Chockse," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2018/375, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ewp:wpaper:375web
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rates; Non-traded goods; Cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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