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The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries

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  • Lipinska, Anna

Abstract

The Maastricht convergence criteria set constraints on both monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU Accession Countries. This paper uses a DSGE model of a two sector small open economy with distortionary taxes to address the following question: How do the Maastricht convergence criteria modify an optimal monetary and fiscal policy mix in an economy facing domestic and external shocks? We find that targets of the unconstrained optimal monetary and fiscal policy are similar to those of the optimal monetary policy alone. The constrained policy is characterised by additional elements that penalize fluctuations of monetary and fiscal variables around the new targets which are different from the steady state of the unconstrained optimal monetary policy. Under the chosen parameterization (which aims to reflect the Czech Republic economy) the optimal monetary and fiscal policy violates three Maastricht criteria: on the CPI inflation rate, the nominal interest rate and deficit to GDP ratio. Both the stabilization component and deterministic component of the con- strained policy are different from the unconstrained optimal policy. Since monetary criteria play a dominant role in affecting the stabilization process of the constrained policy, CPI inflation and the nominal interest are characterised by a smaller variability (than under the unconstrained policy) at the expense of a higher variability of deficit to GDP ratio. The constrained policy is characterised by a deflationary bias which results in targeting the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate that are lower by 1.3% (in annual terms) than the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate in the countries taken as a reference. The constrained policy is also characterised by targeting surplus to GDP ratio at around 3.7%. As a result the policy constrained by the Maastricht convergence criteria induces additional welfare costs that amount to 60% of the initial deadweight loss associated with the optimal policy.

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  • Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16376
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    3. Sandu Carmen, 2009. "Possible Implications Of Adopting The Single European Currency For The Romanian Economy," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 328-335, May.
    4. Lect. Anca Tănasie Ph.D, 2010. "A Brief Assesment Of The Monetary Situation In Romania During The Financial Crises And Facing The Euro Adoption," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15S), pages 11-20, November.
    5. Hlavac, Marek, 2010. "Has EU Enlargement Been, and Will It Continue to Be, a Success? An Evaluation of EU Enlargement's Effects on Policies Pursued by Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 28075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kashiwagi, Masanori, 2017. "A vehicle currency country's welfare under optimal monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 23-31.
    7. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Okano, Eiji, 2014. "How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 266-286.
    9. Assoc. Prof. Anca Tãnasie Ph.D & Lect. Rãzvan Tudor Tãnasie PhD, 2011. "An Algorithm Based Approach For Romania’S Road Towards The Euro-Area Membership Status. In Search Of A Suitable Example," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 133-140, November.
    10. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary and fiscal policy; Maastricht convergence criteria; EMU accession countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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