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A Macroeconomic Analysis of EU Accession under Alternative Monetary Policies

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  • MICHAEL B. DEVEREUX

Abstract

This article provides an analytical discussion of the adjustment to EU accession for an economy under alternative assumptions about monetary policy rules. The post-accession phase is characterized by rapid capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation. If accession is combined with membership of the euro area and a pegged exchange rate, then the post-accession period exhibits excessive foreign borrowing, high wage inflation, an excessive stock market boom, and much too rapid growth in the non-traded sector at the expense of the exportable goods sector. Alternative monetary policies can be used to eliminate the inefficiencies of the post-accession adjustment, but some bring real costs in terms of lower growth and unemployment. We find that the best policy is one of flexible inflation targeting with some weight on exchange rate stability. In the absence of exchange rate adjustment, fiscal policy could be used, but this requires complicated time-varying expenditure taxes. While the analytical discussion emphasizes the benefits of exchange rate adjustment, a later section of the article explores some more recent arguments regarding non-traditional costs of exchange rate volatility. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "A Macroeconomic Analysis of EU Accession under Alternative Monetary Policies," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 941-964, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:41:y:2003:i:5:p:941-964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union: The role of catching up member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 29-40.
    2. Lipińska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries," Working Paper Series 896, European Central Bank.
    3. Lipinska, Anna, 2006. "The Maastricht convergence criteria and optimal monetary policy for the EMU accession countries," MPRA Paper 1795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Robert Ambrisko, 2015. "A Small Open Economy with the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp547, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Federico Ravenna, 2005. "The European Monetary Union as a Commitment Device for New EU Member States," Working Papers 98, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Anna Lipinska, 2006. "Monetary regime choice in the accession countries - a theoretical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 243, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. VAN AARLE, Bas & GARRETSEN, Harry & MOONS, Cindy, 2007. "Accession to the Euro-area: A stylized analysis using a NK model," Working Papers 2007015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    9. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2006. "Implications of monetary union for catching-up member states," Working Paper Series 630, European Central Bank.
    10. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
    11. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Monetary Regimes for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16375, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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