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Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries

Author

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  • Willem H. Buiter

    () (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London (Great Britain))

  • Clemens Grafe

    () (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London (Great Britain))

Abstract

The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2002. "Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 111-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2002:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
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    3. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich & Reiljan, Janno & Schrader, Klaus, 2015. "Some empirical findings on the structural development of the Estonian economy," Kiel Working Papers 1998, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour leuroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
    5. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    6. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    7. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    8. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 552-572.
    9. Todorov Ivan Krumov, 2014. "Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 61(2), pages 197-217, December.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Patching up the Pact: some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    14. Leon Podkaminer, 2003. "Analytical notes on the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 207-221.
    15. Pelkmans, J., 2003. "Economic implications of the enlargement of the EU," Proceedings "Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.", German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 38.
    16. André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 459-485, June.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Christian Fahrholz, 2003. "Strategic Exchange-Rate Policy of Accession Countries in ERM II," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp14, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Apr 2003.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Exchange Rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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