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Macromodel Estimation for the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme"

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Bucharest)

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian economy. Obviously, there are numerous questions that should be analyzed from this perspective. The paper is covering three groups of issues. The first chapter attempts to define some reference points, which have to be considered during the updating of the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Program". The contents and the main functional characteristics of the macromodel used in the simulations for this purpose are examined in the second chapter. The third chapter discusses the computational hypothesis and presents the numerical estimations for two scenarios, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2002-2005. (* Study prepared at the request of the Ministry of Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme")

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Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 5-38

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2002:i:5:p:5-38
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
  5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
  6. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
  8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2001. "Updated scenarios for the Romanian economy medium-term dynamics," MPRA Paper 35792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  10. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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