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Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

Abstract

The macromodel will be used to investigate short and medium–run economic implications of internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel benefites from the experience gained by the author during the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, this model introduces some methodological and informational improvements, in comparison to previous versions. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of economy, according to the input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) construction; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These categories can be easily translated into the classical three-sectors classification: primary (a+b), secondary (c+d), and tertiary (e+f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were modelled - as much as possible - by the standard relationships. Besides, unlike the previous versions, that used statistical series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information regarding the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). When there were several informational sources for the same indicator, we preferred the data extracted or derived from national accounts. The statistical series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transforming processes of transition). Although, it is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer reliable results in the case of limited number of observations, generally the series satisfying it were used. The Granger causality test was computed for one, two, and three lags. The simplest methods of estimation were also preferred. The structural breaks in the evolution of some indicators have been dealt by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The main relationships are grouped in seven sections: input-output block; labour market, production function; domestic absorption, foreign trade, prices and exchange rate, and interest rate. The first two chapters present conceptual framework of macromodel and econometric analysis on which it is based. The next one describes a possible scenario for the Romanian economy during 2005-2010 years. The final part of paper contains a set of simulations revealing some operational features of the macromodel.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35749
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    2. Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE, 2016. "Some Aspects Regarding the Inflation Evolution During the Last Period," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(8), pages 104-109, August.
    3. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
    4. Emilian Dobrescu, 2019. "A Note on Estimating the Importance of Interactions among Economic Entities," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(52), pages 671-671, August.
    5. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Preliminate for 2011, November Estimates," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 197-199, December.
    6. Daianu, Daniel & Lungu, Laurian, 2008. "Why Is This Financial Crisis Occurring? How To Respond To It?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 59-87, December.
    7. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 version. Yearly Forecast – Preliminary results for 2007," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 124-126, December.
    8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    9. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 215-217, March.
    10. Nastac, Iulian & Dobrescu, Emilian & Pelinescu, Elena, 2007. "Neuro-Adaptive Model for Financial Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 19-41, September.
    11. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-31, December.
    12. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Florin Marius PAVELESCU, 2017. "Features of the production factors substitution and the estimated parameters of the Cobb-Douglas function with constant returns to scale and disembodied technical change," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 45(2(54)), pages 134-152, December.
    14. PhD Student Leontina Codruţa ANDRIŢOIU, 2019. "Labor Market Study In Romania," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(47), pages 5-12, December.
    15. Alina Constanţa Cojan, 2012. "Underground Economy – A Growing Challenge For Economy And Governments," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 6(1), pages 97-104, May.
    16. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 129-131, September.

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    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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