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Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor

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  • Mastromarco, Camilla
  • Simar, Leopold
  • Wilson, Paul

Abstract

In this paper, we merge two streams of literature: nonparametric methods to estimate frontier efficiency of an economy, which allows us to develop a new measure of output gap, and nonparametric methods to estimate probability of an economic recession. To illustrate the new framework we use quarterly data for Italy from 1995 to 2019, and find that our model, using either nonparametric or the linear probit model is able to provide useful insights
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Suggested Citation

  • Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvad:2019023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Li, Degui & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2016. "Generalized nonparametric smoothing with mixed discrete and continuous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 424-444.
    7. Bădin, Luiza & Daraio, Cinzia & Simar, Léopold, 2019. "A bootstrap approach for bandwidth selection in estimating conditional efficiency measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 784-797.
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    11. Seok-Oh Jeong & Byeong Park & Léopold Simar, 2010. "Nonparametric conditional efficiency measures: asymptotic properties," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 105-122, January.
    12. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold, 2018. "Globalization and productivity: A robust nonparametric world frontier analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 134-149.
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    21. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar, 2015. "Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonparametric Frontier Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 826-847, August.
    22. Cazals, Catherine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simar, Leopold, 2002. "Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 1-25, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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