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Predicting Recessions with a Frontier Measure of Output Gap: An Application to Italian Economy

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Despite the long and great history, developed institutions, and high level of physical and human capital, the Italian economy has been fairly stagnant during the last three decades. In this paper, we merge two streams of literature: nonparametric methods to estimate frontier efficiency of an economy, which allows us to develop a new measure of output gap, and nonparametric methods to estimate probability of an economic recession. To illustrate the new framework we use quarterly data for Italy from 1995 to 2019, and and that our model, using either nonparametric or the linear probit model, is able to provide useful insights.

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  • Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2020. "Predicting Recessions with a Frontier Measure of Output Gap: An Application to Italian Economy," CEPA Working Papers Series WP102020, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqcepa:153
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    File URL: https://economics.uq.edu.au/files/23540/WP102020.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Subal C. Kumbhakarⓡ & Emir Malikovⓡ & Christopher F. Parmeterⓡ, 2021. "Applications of efficiency and productivity analysis: editors’ introduction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2657-2663, June.
    2. Filip Bašić & Tomislav Globan, 2023. "Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2120040-212, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Output Gap; Robust Nonparametric Frontier; Generilized Nonparametric Quasi- Likelihood Method; Italian recession.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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